Yet another Putin gain has to do with the optics of Western nations’ behavior toward Ukraine during the crisis. They also have to be careful about trying to punish Putin for escalations before they lead to bloodshed: If economic punishment is meted out in the absence of a war, why not start it, after all? They can’t be seen ignoring the threat of a big war in Europe, so they’re on the hook. even if he abuses their time and distracts them from urgent domestic concerns. Even if his complaints don’t find much sympathy, they plant the idea in fellow leaders’ heads that Russia needs to be given something - it does have the right to be concerned about its security, after all.Īs Margarita Simonyan, head of the RT propaganda network, wrote on her Telegram channel, “Nobody used to want to talk security with us, now there’s a line of visitors who wish to enjoy the sights of Moscow in February.”įoreign leaders can’t afford to dismiss Putin’s monologues on history and Russia’s victimhood at the hands of NATO and the U.S. These encounters allow him to air his broader grievances and security demands. Biden calls him on the phone at short notice, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and a succession of British ministers rush to Moscow to talk him out of attacking. tK5NoTm6aJĮspecially in recent weeks, this low-cost escalation has won Putin more attention from Western leaders than he’s seen since invading Crimea in 2014. These soldiers aren't making any effort to prevent the equipment from being seen or photographed. Not going to lie, if Russia was planning on a military escalation in the near future, you would expect to see greater operational security efforts being taken. Rob Lee at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, one of the most visible and competent military analysts during the crisis, has generally leaned toward predicting a new invasion - but, he recently wrote on Twitter, if an attack was in the plans, the Russian troops were perhaps too relaxed about being photographed: Putin appears to have realized that concealing troop movements is pointless, and not doing so gives him the ability to escalate without sending a single soldier across the border and thereby giving the West a viable pretext for sanctions. It’s funded lavishly enough to keep exercising in southwestern Russia and Belarus all year if needed. In 2021, the Russian military spent only about 86% of its 1 trillion ruble ($13.2 billion) budget allocation. Even if part of it leaves now, as Putin and his underlings said on Tuesday, Russia’s military posture seems to be shifting more or less permanently toward the Ukrainian border the troops that leave can always come back at short notice. It didn’t take him long to position a large military force in close proximity to Ukraine. Putin’s biggest win is that he has proven his ability - which he mentioned back in November - to dial Ukraine-related tension up and down at will. European nations and especially Ukraine have, on balance, lost out.
So far, both Putin and Biden appear to have benefited from the crisis. Still, the world’s attention has been focused on the possibility of a large-scale Russian attack on Ukraine long enough for an early tally of strategic and tactical gains and losses from the escalation. President Joe Biden amplified with alarmist rhetoric in recent months. The Russian Defense Ministry’s announcement on Tuesday that troops were beginning to relocate to their permanent bases after drills on the Ukrainian border is not yet the denouement of the crisis that Russian President Vladimir Putin created and then U.S.
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